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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 90% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 90% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 90% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 90% Volume: $274K Liquidity: $348K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.590%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.576%
Map 2 Winner67%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.566%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.554%
Match Winner53%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)41%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.537%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5)10%
Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.50%

Market context

Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D — current market-implied probability: 90%. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "M…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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