Valorant: LOUD vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega

Platform comparison

Market context

LOUD’s BO3 against 100 Thieves in VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega is priced very differently across venues: the crowd-implied chance for **LOUD** is 14%, while Bitget’s live contract screens **LOUD** around 22-27% and **100 Thieves** around 73-80%, and Predict lists **100 Thieves** at 85% on match winner. That gap means the market is treating 100 Thieves as the clear favourite, but not by the kind of margin the exchange-style pricing suggests.

Recent comparative data points point the same way. Strafe’s match page shows 100 Thieves with 69.2% of user votes, and notes that the sides have met eight times with 100 Thieves winning six, including a 3-0 result in their most recent meeting on 30 May 2026.[9] Liquipedia’s 2025 Stage 2 standings also show both organisations have been capable of deep group-stage runs in recent Americas play, which is relevant because BO3 results in this region often swing on map vetoes rather than raw team name value.[14]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the match start, whether the official schedule holds, and any roster or format update before the first map. Polymarket lists the contest under “Today, 9:00 PM” in its VCT slate, while the contract itself is set to resolve off the match result unless the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond the settlement window, in which case it can flip to 50-50.[4] Traders should also watch for any late schedule changes on the VCT Americas feed, because a postponement past seven days would override the on-paper favourite entirely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.