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LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Game 1 Winner 100% Game 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 90% Volume: $72K Liquidity: $373K Closes: 18 Aug 2026
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LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Game 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Any Player Quadra Kill90%
Any Player Penta Kill90%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Odd/Even Total Kills10%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
O/U 2.5 Games0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: nightbirds vs cita kaizen (bo3) - hitpoint masters regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between NightBirds and CITA Kaizen in the Hitpoint Masters Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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