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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

O/U 3.5 Games 73% Match Winner 66% Game 1 Winner 60% Game 2 Winner 59% Volume: $101K Liquidity: $301K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
73% 27% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
73% 27% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games73%
Match Winner66%
Game 1 Winner60%
Game 2 Winner59%
Game 3 Winner59%
Game 4 Winner58%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?53%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?38%
O/U 4.5 Games34%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)23%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)22%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)7%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 73% YES probability for LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00AM ET. This market …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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