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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (BO5) - LES Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (BO5) - LES Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game 2 Winner 100% Game 3 Winner 100% O/U 3.5 Games 100% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 90% Volume: $492K Liquidity: $1.0M Closes: 20 Aug 2026
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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (BO5) - LES Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 2 Winner100%
Game 3 Winner100%
O/U 3.5 Games100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
Any Player Quadra Kill90%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
O/U 4.5 Games80%
Match Winner55%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Game 4 Winner13%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5)13%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Game Handicap: MKF (-2.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+2.5)1%
Game 1 Winner0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: ⁠movistar koi fénix vs team heretics academy (bo5) - les playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix and Team Heretics Academy in the LES Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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Trade LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy (B… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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