Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine’s BO3 against Execration in Games of the Future Group A is set for 05:00 UTC on 31 July, with the market contract tied to the result of that specific series. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% for Yellow Submarine is well above the broader market read: Robinhood’s live event page shows Yellow Submarine at 54¢ and Execration at 46¢, while Leon’s sportsbook pricing implies a narrower edge with Yellow Submarine at 1.7 and Execration at 2.05, which is roughly a 59%–46% split before vig adjustment.[19][14]

That divergence matters because the historical framing does not support treating this as a near-certain result. Games-of-the-Future fixtures are typically priced as ordinary group-stage BO3s, and the public schedule lists this as one of several Group A matches rather than a one-sided showcase.[15][20] Comparable listings from match trackers also show the contest as a standard scheduled series, not a mismatch with a predetermined edge, so a 100% crowd read looks more like a thin or illiquid market than a consensus view.[1][12]

Traders should watch for three things: confirmation that the series is live at the listed start time, any schedule slippage affecting the 7-day resolution window, and official completion of the BO3, because an unfinished match can still create settlement risk under the contract terms. Match pages across SofaScore, Flashscore and Hawk all anchor the start around 05:00 UTC, while some third-party listings differ by a few minutes, which is usually operational noise rather than a substantive change, but it is still relevant if the event is delayed or abandoned.[1][5][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.