Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience will face OG in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International group stage on 14 August 2026. The fixture is scheduled for 1:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 12:10 PM ET the same day. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the match will be contested as scheduled, with no expectation of cancellation or postponement beyond the seven-day grace period.

OG's historical performance at The International provides the primary lens for assessing this matchup. The organisation has won two International titles (2018, 2019) and consistently qualified for the event's main stage, though recent roster iterations have shown variable results. Team Resilience, by contrast, represents a less established competitive pedigree at the highest tier of Dota 2, making OG the conventional favourite in most sportsbook assessments. The 100% implied probability suggests traders are pricing near-certainty that the match occurs rather than confidence in either team's victory prospects.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any scheduling adjustments from The International organisers in the weeks preceding the event. Patch changes to Dota 2, typically released before major tournaments, can shift hero viability and team preparation timelines. Injury or visa complications affecting either roster remain low-probability but material risks that could trigger postponement. The settlement window's tight closure at 12:10 PM ET allows minimal buffer for extended series play, meaning any match running significantly over schedule could create ambiguity around timely resolution.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.