Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: PDAF (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Guara Esports (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Guara Esports (+9.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Guara Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Patins da Ferrari vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Patins da Ferrari and Guara Esports in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 30 at 6:00PM ET. This ma…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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