Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% market-implied chance of resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026, a probability that diverges meaningfully from broader impeachment odds. While Kalshi currently prices the specific event of impeachment and removal at nearly 28.7%, the prediction market for permanent cessation of office remains significantly lower, suggesting traders view removal as unlikely despite rising political pressure[1]. This gap highlights a key distinction: impeachment inquiries are advancing, with Democrats in the House launching formal steps, yet conviction and actual removal remain improbable given Republican control of the Senate[2].

Historical precedent frames this low probability; Trump is already the most impeached president in US history, yet no removal has occurred through conviction or the 25th Amendment[7]. Comparable cases show that while impeachment is possible when one party holds the House, removal requires Senate consensus, which currently does not exist[2]. Traders should monitor upcoming House votes on impeachment articles, scheduled Senate hearings, and any potential Cabinet actions invoking the 25th Amendment, as these are the primary catalysts for market resolution[4]. Recent reporting notes that removal probabilities could evolve if Senate dynamics shift, but current lines suggest stability in Trump’s tenure[2].

The settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, and any official announcement of resignation or removal before that date will immediately resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of when the action takes effect. Key dependencies include the timing of impeachment inquiries, potential Vice President or Cabinet moves under the 25th Amendment, and any unexpected political realignments in the Senate[4]. With Republicans retaining majorities in both chambers, the structural barrier to removal remains intact, reinforcing the 9% market price as a reflection of current political reality rather than speculative fear[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.