What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 10 August 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across major exchanges, with settlement tied to closing levels on that specific date. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders assign negligible likelihood to the contract's resolution criteria being met, though the exact price threshold underpinning this assessment remains unspecified in available market documentation.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's single-day price swings have rarely exceeded 20–25% in non-crisis periods, making extreme moves on any given date statistically uncommon. The 2023–2024 bull run saw Bitcoin oscillate between $26,000 and $73,000 across months rather than days, whilst the March 2020 pandemic crash represented a rare multi-day exception. Current prediction-market consensus at 0% diverges sharply from typical sportsbook volatility pricing, which would ordinarily assign non-trivial odds to tail-risk scenarios; this gap suggests either an unusually narrow price band embedded in the contract's terms or exceptionally low perceived volatility heading into that window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for early August 2026, including US employment figures and Federal Reserve communications, as these have historically driven crypto correlations. Bitcoin's relationship to equity futures and Treasury yields will matter; any significant shift in real-rate expectations typically precedes spot-price movement. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or CFTC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF frameworks could also influence intraday volatility, though such moves are difficult to predict with precision more than eighteen months in advance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.