Bitcoin price on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin will settle at the exact close of the Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle at noon Eastern Time on 13 July 2026, a fixed timestamp that removes intraday volatility from the resolution. The crowd-implied probability of hitting the contract’s upper bracket sits at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that the price will remain below the lowest bracket threshold.

Historical parallels show that when Bitcoin trades near $58,000 in early July, as it did on 1 July 2026, it often consolidates before mid-year rallies [2][3]. Yet the current 0% probability diverges sharply from analyst forecasts projecting an August average of $87,051 and October highs near $105,440, suggesting prediction-market traders are pricing in a sustained bearish phase or bracket misalignment rather than a fundamental price collapse [5]. Sportsbook-style odds on similar crypto contracts typically hover between 15–30% for mid-range outcomes, making this zero-implied line an outlier.

Traders should monitor the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting schedule and any sudden shifts in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which recently dipped to its weakest level since May before recovering [3]. A break above $64,000 in the coming days—currently the live price at $63,769—could invalidate the 0% assumption if the market re-rates toward the $64,000–$66,000 bracket [1][4]. The resolution hinges entirely on a single minute’s close, so liquidity spikes around noon ET will be the decisive catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.