Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading in the mid-$60,000s, while this contract settles on Binance’s 12:00 p.m. ET one-minute BTC/USDT close on 9 August, so the key question is whether spot holds near the current range or slips into the next bracket at the fixing. CoinDesk shows Bitcoin at $64,846.41, OpenBitcoin’s August daily history shows a 7 August close of $64,878, and YCharts puts the latest daily value at $64,608.71, all of which places the market close to the 64,000–66,000 band rather than the much higher ranges implied by some external price pages.[14][1][3]

That makes the current crowd price of 0% YES look far more cautious than the broad run of market commentary, which still clusters around a mid-$60,000 tape rather than a collapse or breakout. Polymarket’s own ladder is centred on 62,000–64,000 at 33% and 64,000–66,000 at 30%, while outside forecasters such as CoinCodex and Changelly also point to August values in the mid-to-high $60,000s; by contrast, a Yahoo Finance summary argues for a bearish August structure from near $65,300, with downside levels below $61,000 if support fails.[7][16][11][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are likely to be macro headlines and any sharp move in the spot market before Binance’s noon ET fixing, because this market is a single-candle print rather than a daily close average. With Bitcoin already oscillating inside a relatively tight band, even a modest break in either direction can matter if it happens near the settlement window, and the discrepancy between the zero-percent crowd price and the broader market’s mid-$60,000 consensus suggests participants are either expecting a mis-specified market or treating the contract as too finely timed to price with confidence.[14][7][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.