Bitcoin price on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 13 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that precise moment. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either confident the market will not resolve on that date, or that the specific price bracket in question lies well outside realistic expectations for that timeframe. Given the settlement window extends to mid-2026, the current odds reflect substantial uncertainty about both Bitcoin's trajectory and the mechanics of resolution itself.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around macroeconomic announcements and regulatory developments. Over comparable 18-month horizons, Bitcoin has experienced swings exceeding 50% in either direction, making single-day price predictions inherently difficult. The zero probability here may indicate either an extremely wide or narrow price bracket relative to consensus forecasts, or that market participants view the specific resolution conditions as unlikely to trigger.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional adoption announcements, and any material shifts in cryptocurrency regulation through mid-2026. Bitcoin's correlation with broader risk assets has strengthened in recent years, making macroeconomic data releases—particularly inflation reports and interest-rate decisions—potential catalysts for significant intraday moves. The reliance on Binance's specific 1-minute candle data introduces execution risk; liquidity conditions and potential exchange outages at the exact settlement moment represent practical considerations beyond price forecasting.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.