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ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner

How the prediction-market book is pricing "ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

A 50% B 50% C 50% D 50% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $92K
Open live market →
ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
A50%
B50%
C50%
D50%
E50%
F50%
G50%
H50%
I50%
J50%
Other50%
Ben Shelton12%
Tommy Paul5%
Arthur Fils5%
Brandon Nakashima5%
Jakub Mensik5%
Casper Ruud4%
Frances Tiafoe4%
Matteo Arnaldi4%
Hubert Hurkacz3%
Tallon Griekspoor3%
Mariano Navone3%
Nuno Borges3%
Cameron Norrie3%
Alex Michelsen3%
Alexei Popyrin3%
Luciano Darderi2%
Arthur Rinderknech2%
Jannik Sinner0%
Alexander Zverev0%
Daniil Medvedev0%
Andrey Rublev0%
Grigor Dimitrov0%
Stefanos Tsitsipas0%
Taylor Fritz0%
Ugo Humbert0%
Holger Rune0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime0%
Alejandro Tabilo0%
Karen Khachanov0%
Sebastian Korda0%
Nicolas Jarry0%
Alexander Bublik0%
Jack Draper0%
Gael Monfils0%
Adrian Mannarino0%
Jordan Thompson0%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry0%
Marcos Giron0%
Tomas Machac0%
Pedro Martinez0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina0%
Fabian Marozsan0%
Flavio Cobolli0%
Miomir Kecmanovic0%
Lorenzo Sonego0%
Roman Safiullin0%
Denis Shapovalov0%
Gabriel Diallo0%
Milos Raonic0%
Kei Nishikori0%
Vasek Pospisil0%
Pablo Carreno Busta0%
Dusan Lajovic0%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard0%
Corentin Moutet0%
Jaume Munar0%
Roberto Carballes Baena0%
Dominik Koepfer0%
Facundo Diaz Acosta0%
Max Purcell0%
Aleksandar Vukic0%
Marton Fucsovics0%
Hugo Gaston0%
Federico Coria0%
Sumit Nagal0%
Thiago Seyboth Wild0%
Rinky Hijikata0%
Christopher O'Connell0%
Daniel Altmaier0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, atp 1000 montreal: winner stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 National Bank Open (ATP Masters 1000, Montreal), currently scheduled for August 2 – August 13, 2026. If this tournamen…

Methodology

This page reviews ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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