In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where users trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Automated smart contracts manage all settlement processes.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket operates as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in margin, participants exchange positions with other users holding opposing views. Market prices continuously evolve to reflect aggregate probability assessments — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
Prediction markets enable you to acquire shares representing potential outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Purchasing a YES share at 40 cents ($0.40) signals your belief in a 40% probability of occurrence. Correct predictions yield a doubling of capital; incorrect ones result in total loss of the invested amount.
Polymarket operates differently from conventional bookmakers in that it imposes no margin (the "vig"). Market prices emerge solely through the interplay of buyer and seller activity.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 solution extending Ethereum's capabilities). This architecture delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain verifiability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, trading, and settlement via smart contracts
- Elimination of centralised control — Polymarket operators cannot seize assets or alter results
- Rapid settlement completion within minutes rather than extended timescales
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket trading exclusively utilises USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 correspondence with the US dollar. Your trading balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price fluctuations — each USDC maintains constant $1 equivalence.
How markets resolve
Upon event conclusion, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. An appointed proposer submits the determined outcome; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, settlement becomes binding. Contested determinations escalate to UMA token-holder arbitration — a decentralised resolution mechanism.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and complete identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund via MoonPay, conventional bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings spanning politics, athletics, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate holdings whenever desired before market conclusion
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through an intuitive mobile-optimised platform and straightforward email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional polling methodologies and specialist commentary. Throughout the 2024 US election period, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed accuracy levels achieved by leading polling aggregation services. The mechanism driving this precision: financial incentives compel participants toward rigorous, unbiased evaluation.